Introduction
Recently, Nitish Kumar again bifurcated themself from Maha Gathbandhan and once again joined hands with BJP. This is the 9th time, he taken oath as CM, Bihar. In last 9 years, this is 5th time. After doing all favours for making himself CM, he is now synonyms to many adjectives. People call him Kurshi Kumar, Palturam, Litish Chacha etc. Many memes and jokes are floating across social media. I won't talk them, i am here to share some interesting facts, which is not true yet, but the time will decide its genuinity. Opinion
In my opinion, JDU (Nitish Kumar) is RJD (Lalu Yadav) B team. B team means parde ke pichhe sath sath, aur parde ke bahar alag alag. In #LoksabhaElection2024, which is going to happen in April month, Now due to JDU coming in NDA ( means BJP team ) now BJP will contest on less seats. Total loksabha seats in Bihar is 40. The seat sharing between BJP and JDU in Bihar is something like this BJP 18, JDU 16, Chirag 4 and Manjhi 2. Chirag Paswans LJP and JeetanRam Manjhi's HAM is also in BJP team.
On other side in RJD team ( which you can call Mahagathbandhan or INDIA ALLIANCE) the possible sest sharing will be RJD 26, Congress 10, CPI and left 4. AIMIM ( Owaisi ) is planning to fight alone on some limited seats only in muslim majority areas.
Now see, If BJP will win all 16 seats, still they win only 40%. Because i am assuming Nitish's JDU as B team of Lalu, so whatever seats JDU will win, that may increase the total number for NDA Alliance, but not for BJP individually as BJP and JDU are different parties na.
If JDU remains inmahagathbandhan, in mean if recent breakup not happened, then for seat sharing, RJD will get less seats, not 26.
And then NDA ( BJP ) seats sharing were looked like this BJP 28, Chirag 8, Manjhi 4.
(All seats stats are of predictive nature only, but are accurate subject to plus minus 1-2 seats.)
Everyone knows ki JDU ka janadhaar bahut kam h. Even #NitishKumar khud fight kr le fir v he won't win. INDI Alliance main goal is to stop BJP. This can be done easily by cutting their fighting seats in advance. And in Bihar they will be successful in this, by limiting BJP participation to 18 seats and RJD will contest far more from it, i.e, 26 seats.
Prediction
BJP is planning for 400+ victory this time. States like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh alone makes 40+80 = 120 seats. In Uttar Pradesh too, Samajwadi Party of Akhilesh Yadav is contesting on 69 seats. Recent Caste Census of Bihar is a base to predict the caste demography of Uttar Pradesh too. Having almost 30% population of Muslim and Yadav in both state, it's difficult for BJP to stand stronger there.
Seats sharing haven't happened yet but whenever it happens, BJP will get close to 18 in Bihar.
Ground reality in Bihar suggests that people favouring RJD there. For next 2 months, RJD will advertise against Nitish, take all jobs credit which their government announced recently, do mass campaign on ground. They give examples of how ED and CBI investigating only opponent leaders. They will try to tarnish the image of Nitish. RJD also have bhakt and kattar karyakartas at all levels, who believes Laluji as their god. Nitish have no one as his successor, so he don't care about his image.
Lets see what happens, but in my opinion, RJD will win more seats than BJP in #Bihar.
Disclaimer: There words are my personal opinion. You are free to agree and disagree. I will be more happy to read your opinion too. Use comment box below to write your opinion. If you are a X ( formerly Twitter) user you can also reply your opinion to the embedded tweet below.
IMO
— Ashish Anand (@retort_reply) January 31, 2024
JDU is RJD'S B team. In #LoksabhaElection2024 yadi JDU ke NDA me aa jaane se ab BJP kam seats pe fight kregi. Something like this BJP 16, JDU 12, Chirag 6 and Manjhi 6. On other side RJD 25, INC 10, CPI & left 5. If BJP will win all 16, still they win only 40%.
Contd..
Thanks.